“What the layman calls skill and luck are actually murky concepts!”
From: Paul Magriel
Date: October 5, 2017 at 12:27:09 PM EDT
Subject: Re: When do I have a free takeIn 7-pt match post Crawford you have a free drop leading 6-5 he is 2 away. If you pass its DMP (dbl match pt) If you take, you are playing this game for match. Therefore if you are a 51% to 49% underdog You should drop and match is now pick’em. Hence you have “free” drop. Similarly if leading 6-3 post Crawford you pass everything if not a favorite. If you pass score is 6-4 and he must win two in a row or a gammon. If you take (where you are underdog) then he has less work to do. Also same situation leading 6-1 : 6# away. . -1 and 6-2 are essentially same score post Crawford so again you pass everything unless you are favorite.
Now consider case where opponent is odd # away such as 6-4. Now you have a “must take “ situation. If you only have a 5 % chance to win, you must take. If you pass the score is 6-5 : he will dbl on opening roll and match is pickem. If you take and lose the score is 6-6 so again match is pickem. As long as you can’t be gammoned it cost you nothing to take. Similarly at 6-2 : If you take and lose single match is 6-4 same score as 6-3 if you pass. S o you can take everything if not being gammoned. Same logic at 6-0 .If he dbls on opening roll you must take everything –even if clear dog. Will explain next week with examples .
Magriel, Paul